I want to be honest here; Rio De Janeiro is not the first bad idea the International Olympic Committee have had when choosing venues to hold the Summer Games, but it ranks up there with the top three.
Rio will not be a disaster as an Olympic event, (there is too much money involved for that to happen), but it will not be the glamorous, screaming success that the IOC (see above) are hoping for. In fact, I believe it will take numerous Spin-Doctors to hide the failures that it will produce.
And like all armchair observers, I am happy to tell you why... but I will have to go back to the beginning...
When Baron de Coubertin first instituted the Modern Olympics in 1896, he was working on a certain set of standards, and those standards have been adhered to pretty much all the way to the present day, with a few notable disasters...but he was also working in a different world, that had different standards, and different structures governing society.
The good Baron was a product of, and lived during, the Great Age of Empire. All nations that were worth anything of consequence, had Colonial property. Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Russia, Italy, even the United States of America, all had colonies and were all making large sums of money from those colonies, as well. This situation persisted well into the Twentieth Century, with Britain, France, and Belgium holding on to colonies into the 1960's, (Technically Britain had a colony in Hong Kong until 1999, in all but name). As a consequence, the Great Powers had immense resources and could easily afford to host an event that, while initially small, rapidly grew into a large and expensive undertaking.
The Baron's world was also one of regimented hierarchy, where every individual knew their place in society, and also knew the consequences of stepping outside the Rules. Remember, this was over a century after the Unifications of both Italy and Germany, but before the First World War, and the Russian Revolution. Many people regarded this time as a kind of Golden Age, akin to the time of Classical Greece. It is no coincidence that The Olympic Games was revived at this time.
So for almost one hundred years, the modern Olympics were held in wealthy European capitals, or if not wealthy, at least retaining the glory of that wealth, and when the Games did shift away from Europe, it was to wealthy non-European capitals like Melbourne, Tokyo, and Mexico City.(Mexico was a very wealthy nation at this time). It seemed like it could go on forever, but then Montreal announced after it hosted the Games in 1976, that the Olympics had cost Montreal a fortune, and it was no exaggeration. The debt was not paid off until 2006, thirty years after the Olympics. Ouch....
Suddenly the prestige of hosting a Summer Olympics was seriously counter-balanced by the immense financial burden it placed on the host city/nation. Suddenly city officials had to consider whether hosting the Games was worth the financial and political fallout. Now the Rules of Society had changed and the populace didn't abide by the old Hierarchy. Now the population could vote out those who cost the city a fortune for the sake of a year or so of Glory.
Which brings us to Rio.
If ever a city didn't need the financial millstone of an Olympic Games, it's Rio de Janeiro. A beautiful city, with magnificent beaches, the Statue of Christ, Carnivale, Food, Glamour.... and slums, mud-slides, crime, poverty to rival any Third-world nation on earth, and civil unrest...lots of civil unrest.
Oh, and of course, a mosquito-borne virus that can cause congenital defects in unborn children.
If your Economy is so fragile that an increase in public bus fares of around 20 cents Australian provokes rioting in the Streets, my advice would be to not host an Olympics. Of course, 20 cents Australian is .50 Brazilian Real. In a nation where the average monthly income for the last four years has been just 2000 Real, a hike of half a Real per bus ride is substantial. I don't think many other stable economies would have riots in the streets, though....
Of course, there is a lot of money coming from outside Rio to fund this event, and the inevitable "will it be ready in time" questions will probably be silenced by spending a lot of this cash, but the bottom line will still be in the red, and the poor of Brazil will ask why some of that money could not be spent on improving their situation. Stir into this mix the corruption allegations and abuses of power cited by the media and social justice organisations, and Rio 2016 could very well lead to a very uncomfortable social upheaval in the near future.
I hope I am wrong about Rio 2016, and I hope it does the Economy of Rio the world of good, but I have my doubts. We can only wait and see, and if it is not a good outcome, perhaps the International Olympic Committee will be more circumspect in its' choices for future hosts.
By the way, my Top Three Olympic city disasters? In no particular order;
Moscow 1980...this was in the twilight of the USSR... like holding the Olympics in North Korea today...
Beijing 2008...so determined to prove they were better than Western nations at this sort of thing that they actually cheated on the fireworks display at the opening...using video footage to make it look more impressive. And the smog of a Third-world Economy being pushed into the 21st Century...choking the athletes.
Berlin 1936...generally acknowledged as the most cringe-inducing Olympic Games, with Hitler shamelessly turning them into a political exercise, and embarrassing his nation, the Games, and the athletes themselves.
I hope Rio doesn't displace any of these...Please...
