There is a vacuum in the White House. There is no President running the country, and nobody seems to have noticed. Oh, sure, Barack Obama is still living there, albeit packing up boxes (figuratively) of souvenirs and framed photographs of famous people, but he isn't actually DOING anything. There are a few Presidential Decrees that have been issued; a last minute chance to leave his mark on the nation while there is no real Congress to stymie the final Public Relations gestures, but these have been on ice for the better part of his second term and are now being rolled out like a pre-recorded Last Will and Testament that everyone has to listen to even though they know the speaker is dead, and all the money is being left to the cat.
You see, once Donald Trump was pronounced victor at the November election, Obama became a care-taker living in a big house. He cannot make material changes to policy, or influence the direction of the nation any more, because the machinery of Government is gearing up for the new Administration.
Donald Trump is now receiving the same daily Security briefings as Obama. Trump is being educated on the United States' position in relation to other World Powers, and possible future scenarios involving those nations. In effect, Obama is powerless unless a major crisis occurs involving National Security, Fiscal meltdown, or something similar.
On the other hand, Donald Trump is being schooled in Presidential Etiquette, names of Heads of State, how the Secret Service, FBI, and other arms of Government operate, as well as the aforementioned Security updates. But Trump has no real power. Until he takes the Oath of Office, and signs on the dotted line, (what is that thing they sign? I think it's a three year lease on the White House...) he cannot wield power in any real form apart from using the potential influence that his impending appointment gives him. He is, in effect, a private citizen who has accepted a massive promotion in the biggest company on the planet, but has to wait until the previous job-holder hits 65 and retires.
So, we have an existing President who has the power but can't use it, waiting to hand over to an incoming President who wants the power, but can't have it yet. So who is making the decisions? Well the same machine that runs the country on every other day of a Presidential Term; The Bureaucracy.
These are the ones that make the little decisions that keep the United States of America heading down the Road to the Future... whatever that Future may be.
That brings me to my real point in this diatribe...It doesn't matter who gets elected, nothing changes. The interim between Presidents is the clearest example of how little influence really resides in the Oval Office. If a country of 320 million people can exist for three months with two titular Presidents, neither of whom can make or influence policy, then why not for the rest of the year?
Of course it's not that simple. The President has the power of veto over Congress, and he can introduce Bills and formulate Policy, but a veto makes headlines in the news, and how many Bills and Policies are buried, diluted or defeated by the Congress, or poorly enacted by the Civil Service?
Finally, in the few weeks since his election, we have watched President-Elect Trump back down over the Mexico Border wall, Deportation of illegal immigrants, and a softening of his hard line with the Republican Party that isolated and disowned his Campaign. Already Trump is being transformed into ever other U.S. President, his edges are blurring, his stance is softening and he is becoming equivocal in his political alliances. Soon Donald Trump will be like every other President in modern times; generic and interchangeable....and the Machine of Government will continue on its way... only the hair colour will change...
Saturday, 26 November 2016
Wednesday, 9 November 2016
The U.S. President Doesn't Surprise Me.
I am writing this after the most tumultuous day in living U.S. Electoral history. I do not say ALL of U.S. electoral history, because there have been some pretty extraordinary U.S. Elections. (No, I won't tell you, do your homework!)
I am doing something that I rarely do; I am posting before have given the subject time to sink in and to consider my response. As a result, my post may be a little screwed up, but please, read to the end and hopefully my thoughts will become clear. Here goes.
Living in Australia, we have a rather unique view of world politics. Our nation was born of slaves (read convicts), but achieved Independence (to a degree) without Revolution. Our Government is based on the British system of Parliament, but our States hold an autonomy reminiscent of the system of the United States of America. (hang in there guys, I'm getting to it...)
We have also never been invaded, never had a Civil War, and never had a political figure assassinated.
Our Economy is reasonably strong, and we are a popular nation for immigration.
We are, Indeed, The Lucky Country. Well, that's how we like to see ourselves.
My point is, when Elections occur in other countries, we like to remind ourselves of these facts, and give ourselves a little pat on the back. Indeed, we feel a little superior... That's why we think we have the Right To Criticise...
But we don't. Nobody has that Right. But we do have the right to observe and comment, because, well, we got most of the Democratic Process pretty right. On that note, here are my observations:
After the Election of Donald Trump as U.S. President today (Ninth of November Australian time), there was such an outpouring of hysteria, doom-saying and breast-beating, that I thought World War may have been imminent, but then I realised I was looking at Social Media, a place where hysteria or profound wisdom are the only ways to get noticed, and so I relaxed. But I must comment on the general reaction, not only on Facebook, Twitter, et al, but also on mainstream radio and television.
First of all, I understand that this is just a gut reaction, a knee-jerk response to a result that was largely discounted by the experts (once again I have to ask how good these "experts" are...they keep getting it wrong). It is also a result that was feared by the hugely vocal, largely well-educated, mostly Middle-Class, and generally ill-informed Centre-to-Left leaning voters of THE WHOLE WORLD.
You see, most people listen to the general media, and that media is excellent for pushing the shallow, exciting news that harried, pushed members of the public can take in easily. As a result, it was easy for World Media to push Donald Trump's "Build a wall" speech, his misogyny, his tax avoidance, and his simplistic, basic solutions to complex geo -political problems.
It was also excellent for showing up Hilary Clinton's E-mail controversy, her open political ambition and her desire to win at all costs.
World Media also did something else;
It allowed emotions to take over the facts.
We last saw this on the World Stage when Obama was elected for the first time. The World was so overwhelmed by the image of a Black United States President, that it forgot to take note of the clever campaign strategy he ran, his aspirational and ultimately impossible-to-achieve policies, and his lack of experience.
Obama was an inspiration, and the Press loved it. After eight years, many of his promises remain unfulfilled, and he will be remembered as the first Black President, not as a Great President. I do not mean to slight him, he tried very hard to fulfill his promises, but they were greater than was achievable. My point is that the Press got lost in the flashing lights and pretty costumes, just as they have in this campaign.
The Press have had a difficult time with Donald Trump. He didn't play the game. When he was caught being a sexist pig, he admitted it. When they found he didn't pay taxes, he said "Well if you could find a legal way to avoid tax, wouldn't you do it, too?" He attacked and attacked, he didn't stop punching, even when it was supposed to be Clinton's turn, he kept going. He put the Press off-balance.
Hilary Clinton, on the other hand, was a consummate politician. She parried, avoided, ducked, weaved, and didn't get caught on a single thing. And that was her problem.
So many people that I respect greatly have expressed concern and even down-right fear at the election of Trump as President. I can understand why, and I respect their opinion. I do however, want to remind the worried people of the world about a few things, some you may know, some you may have forgotten;
Hilary Clinton is the wife of a serial misogynist who avoided Impeachment by the skin of his teeth, and yet she stood by him, essentially for the sake of her political ambition. (Edit: I stand corrected; Bill Clinton WAS Impeached, but was acquitted at trial through insufficient evidence. He was found guilty of perjury over another sexual misconduct claim, however, and was fined and had to pay costs).
As Secretary of State, she allowed the deaths of United States diplomatic Staff and Marines at Benghazi, through inaction and indifference.
The F.B.I. have admitted that she has broken multiple Federal Laws by using her private email server to discuss Top Secret information, and also inappropriate attitudes toward Foreign Diplomats. Inexplicably, she has not been charged. No-one, not even her supporters can explain why.
The Clinton Foundation has received many millions of dollars in donations, much of which has been used in a manner which is highly inappropriate.
Now Donald Trump is not a saint. He is as tainted and has as many questions to answer as Ms Clinton. So why is everyone so upset? Well, because Trump is a bully, has no conscience, and no political experience. And that is all true. But Trump has some things that Clinton doesn't have.
Trump had no reason to think he would win. He came in, he fought, he played dirty, and he did what he had to do to get nominated. Then he started campaigning against Clinton.
Hilary Clinton was angry when Obama was nominated and was elected President. That was to be her turn. She was so angry that she spent the next two terms setting up her victory for this time around. She was so determined that when she had defeated all the other Democratic nominees, but Bernie Sanders wouldn't go away, the Democratic hierarchy changed some voting numbers to make sure Sanders was defeated and Clinton got the nomination. Please check mainstream news records to confirm this if you are in doubt.
Clinton exhibited an assurance, almost smugness, throughout the campaign, she knew this was her time. In another election, she would have been right.
Trump should never have made it past the second round of Primaries for the Republican Nomination, but there were too many Candidates. The votes were diluted in each vote due to the sheer number of candidates. The spread allowed Trump to survive long enough to get his simple, hard-hitting messages through to the working-class, non-voting public, and those new voters got him over the line to run for President.
So Trump came up against Clinton. Had Clinton been facing a politician, she would have won, and probably on easily. She had experience in debate, background in law and years as a top-level politician. She could take on any politician the opposition could throw at her.
Instead, she faced an opponent who didn't duck and weave like a politician would have, but stood, took it on the chin, and then counter-punched instead of defending. It didn't matter that the response was spurious, even ridiculous, it nullified her attack.
Clinton spoke of Social Reform and Women's Rights, but hadn't Obama done that for the last eight years? The Heartland States had been hurting for a long time and had heard this all before. They didn't like Trump, and would not admit they supported him, but they didn't support Clinton either.
Trump offered simple solutions, ones that sounded wholesome and traditional; jobs, family, Make America Great Again. Clinton assumed she would be elected because she was running against a clown who talked big. But big talk is what the working -class of the United States wants to hear.
Finally, there is a fundamental difference between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton, and it concerns their aspirations.
Trump is a businessman, he regards everything as a battle. Daily life, for him, has always been a scramble to get to the top.
Hilary Clinton is a lawyer and a Politician. Her whole career has been about tactics and negotiation to achieve a result.
Trump stood up for election because he saw an opportunity. Clinton has hungered for this job since at least University, if not before. She and Bill were involved in politics at University and her trajectory has always been toward the White House.
Please don't tell me that either of these people do this job because of a desire to serve the people, because that's Bullshit. The people who have genuine desire to serve the community, well they become Scout Leaders, Community Volunteers, and anonymous donors to charities.
Anyone who wants to be elected to the White House has a strong desire for Power, and if they make at least 50 years of their life about it, then that desire is all-consuming, in my opinion.
Hilary Clinton is the first Presidential Candidate to lose an election and not address the supporters and the Press. Such was the disappointment she experienced.
Donald Trump has a desire for power also, but his is an academic desire. He wants to win it for the battle that comes before the prize.
I believe Trump will be a remarkably mild President. He will have his moments, no doubt, when the World will shake its' head and wonder, but I believe he will be "managed" by the State Department, The Senate, Congress, The CIA and The FBI.
No-body wants a hair-trigger in power...least of all those with the biggest guns...
I am doing something that I rarely do; I am posting before have given the subject time to sink in and to consider my response. As a result, my post may be a little screwed up, but please, read to the end and hopefully my thoughts will become clear. Here goes.
Living in Australia, we have a rather unique view of world politics. Our nation was born of slaves (read convicts), but achieved Independence (to a degree) without Revolution. Our Government is based on the British system of Parliament, but our States hold an autonomy reminiscent of the system of the United States of America. (hang in there guys, I'm getting to it...)
We have also never been invaded, never had a Civil War, and never had a political figure assassinated.
Our Economy is reasonably strong, and we are a popular nation for immigration.
We are, Indeed, The Lucky Country. Well, that's how we like to see ourselves.
My point is, when Elections occur in other countries, we like to remind ourselves of these facts, and give ourselves a little pat on the back. Indeed, we feel a little superior... That's why we think we have the Right To Criticise...
But we don't. Nobody has that Right. But we do have the right to observe and comment, because, well, we got most of the Democratic Process pretty right. On that note, here are my observations:
After the Election of Donald Trump as U.S. President today (Ninth of November Australian time), there was such an outpouring of hysteria, doom-saying and breast-beating, that I thought World War may have been imminent, but then I realised I was looking at Social Media, a place where hysteria or profound wisdom are the only ways to get noticed, and so I relaxed. But I must comment on the general reaction, not only on Facebook, Twitter, et al, but also on mainstream radio and television.
First of all, I understand that this is just a gut reaction, a knee-jerk response to a result that was largely discounted by the experts (once again I have to ask how good these "experts" are...they keep getting it wrong). It is also a result that was feared by the hugely vocal, largely well-educated, mostly Middle-Class, and generally ill-informed Centre-to-Left leaning voters of THE WHOLE WORLD.
You see, most people listen to the general media, and that media is excellent for pushing the shallow, exciting news that harried, pushed members of the public can take in easily. As a result, it was easy for World Media to push Donald Trump's "Build a wall" speech, his misogyny, his tax avoidance, and his simplistic, basic solutions to complex geo -political problems.
It was also excellent for showing up Hilary Clinton's E-mail controversy, her open political ambition and her desire to win at all costs.
World Media also did something else;
It allowed emotions to take over the facts.
We last saw this on the World Stage when Obama was elected for the first time. The World was so overwhelmed by the image of a Black United States President, that it forgot to take note of the clever campaign strategy he ran, his aspirational and ultimately impossible-to-achieve policies, and his lack of experience.
Obama was an inspiration, and the Press loved it. After eight years, many of his promises remain unfulfilled, and he will be remembered as the first Black President, not as a Great President. I do not mean to slight him, he tried very hard to fulfill his promises, but they were greater than was achievable. My point is that the Press got lost in the flashing lights and pretty costumes, just as they have in this campaign.
The Press have had a difficult time with Donald Trump. He didn't play the game. When he was caught being a sexist pig, he admitted it. When they found he didn't pay taxes, he said "Well if you could find a legal way to avoid tax, wouldn't you do it, too?" He attacked and attacked, he didn't stop punching, even when it was supposed to be Clinton's turn, he kept going. He put the Press off-balance.
Hilary Clinton, on the other hand, was a consummate politician. She parried, avoided, ducked, weaved, and didn't get caught on a single thing. And that was her problem.
So many people that I respect greatly have expressed concern and even down-right fear at the election of Trump as President. I can understand why, and I respect their opinion. I do however, want to remind the worried people of the world about a few things, some you may know, some you may have forgotten;
Hilary Clinton is the wife of a serial misogynist who avoided Impeachment by the skin of his teeth, and yet she stood by him, essentially for the sake of her political ambition. (Edit: I stand corrected; Bill Clinton WAS Impeached, but was acquitted at trial through insufficient evidence. He was found guilty of perjury over another sexual misconduct claim, however, and was fined and had to pay costs).
As Secretary of State, she allowed the deaths of United States diplomatic Staff and Marines at Benghazi, through inaction and indifference.
The F.B.I. have admitted that she has broken multiple Federal Laws by using her private email server to discuss Top Secret information, and also inappropriate attitudes toward Foreign Diplomats. Inexplicably, she has not been charged. No-one, not even her supporters can explain why.
The Clinton Foundation has received many millions of dollars in donations, much of which has been used in a manner which is highly inappropriate.
Now Donald Trump is not a saint. He is as tainted and has as many questions to answer as Ms Clinton. So why is everyone so upset? Well, because Trump is a bully, has no conscience, and no political experience. And that is all true. But Trump has some things that Clinton doesn't have.
Trump had no reason to think he would win. He came in, he fought, he played dirty, and he did what he had to do to get nominated. Then he started campaigning against Clinton.
Hilary Clinton was angry when Obama was nominated and was elected President. That was to be her turn. She was so angry that she spent the next two terms setting up her victory for this time around. She was so determined that when she had defeated all the other Democratic nominees, but Bernie Sanders wouldn't go away, the Democratic hierarchy changed some voting numbers to make sure Sanders was defeated and Clinton got the nomination. Please check mainstream news records to confirm this if you are in doubt.
Clinton exhibited an assurance, almost smugness, throughout the campaign, she knew this was her time. In another election, she would have been right.
Trump should never have made it past the second round of Primaries for the Republican Nomination, but there were too many Candidates. The votes were diluted in each vote due to the sheer number of candidates. The spread allowed Trump to survive long enough to get his simple, hard-hitting messages through to the working-class, non-voting public, and those new voters got him over the line to run for President.
So Trump came up against Clinton. Had Clinton been facing a politician, she would have won, and probably on easily. She had experience in debate, background in law and years as a top-level politician. She could take on any politician the opposition could throw at her.
Instead, she faced an opponent who didn't duck and weave like a politician would have, but stood, took it on the chin, and then counter-punched instead of defending. It didn't matter that the response was spurious, even ridiculous, it nullified her attack.
Clinton spoke of Social Reform and Women's Rights, but hadn't Obama done that for the last eight years? The Heartland States had been hurting for a long time and had heard this all before. They didn't like Trump, and would not admit they supported him, but they didn't support Clinton either.
Trump offered simple solutions, ones that sounded wholesome and traditional; jobs, family, Make America Great Again. Clinton assumed she would be elected because she was running against a clown who talked big. But big talk is what the working -class of the United States wants to hear.
Finally, there is a fundamental difference between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton, and it concerns their aspirations.
Trump is a businessman, he regards everything as a battle. Daily life, for him, has always been a scramble to get to the top.
Hilary Clinton is a lawyer and a Politician. Her whole career has been about tactics and negotiation to achieve a result.
Trump stood up for election because he saw an opportunity. Clinton has hungered for this job since at least University, if not before. She and Bill were involved in politics at University and her trajectory has always been toward the White House.
Please don't tell me that either of these people do this job because of a desire to serve the people, because that's Bullshit. The people who have genuine desire to serve the community, well they become Scout Leaders, Community Volunteers, and anonymous donors to charities.
Anyone who wants to be elected to the White House has a strong desire for Power, and if they make at least 50 years of their life about it, then that desire is all-consuming, in my opinion.
Hilary Clinton is the first Presidential Candidate to lose an election and not address the supporters and the Press. Such was the disappointment she experienced.
Donald Trump has a desire for power also, but his is an academic desire. He wants to win it for the battle that comes before the prize.
I believe Trump will be a remarkably mild President. He will have his moments, no doubt, when the World will shake its' head and wonder, but I believe he will be "managed" by the State Department, The Senate, Congress, The CIA and The FBI.
No-body wants a hair-trigger in power...least of all those with the biggest guns...
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